Closing the void in energy planning modeling: Integrating local realities

African electricity access shortfalls have prompted multiple energy planning models to suggest rapid deployment of low-carbon pathways. Instead being data driven, these scenario-based often rely on assumptions and political targets. Recently in Nature Energy, Alova et al. propose a solution for integrating local factors into models. In the push achieving universal access, there been host that use optimization, simulation, integrated assessment modeling predict future power plant combinations within continent.1Trotter P.A. McManus M.C. Maconachie R. Electricity implementation sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review.Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2017; 74: 1189-1209Crossref Scopus (77) Google Scholar These system typically assume all customers will be connected source overnight, ignoring how progress over time,2Musselman A. Thomas V.M. Nazzal D. Papageorgiou D.J. Venkatesh Mallapragada D.S. The impact development priorities expansion Africa.Energy Syst. 2021; https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00433-zCrossref (2) stakeholder objectives,3Baker E. Nock Levin T. Atarah S.A. Afful-Dadzie Dodoo-Arhin Ndikumana L. Shittu Muchapondwa Sackey C.V.H. Who is marginalized justice? Amplifying community leader perspectives transitions Ghana.Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 73: 101933Crossref (10) drive project success.4Alova G. Trotter Money machine-learning approach predicting Africa’s mix based planned plants their chances success.Nat. Energy. 6: 158-166Crossref (26) Integrating risk critical Africa, where electrification most likely gradual process across decades, thus opening itself failure points. One major factor mismatch between international objectives tendency environmental dominate landscape. When stakeholders were asked about state transition Ghana, one expressed significant frustration with high costs electricity, while others suggested reliability should given highest importance.3Baker Concerns climate change protection largely left out conversation. Additionally, was large consensus needing capacity as driver economic development. addition missing divergence objectives, large-scale generation an inherent under-delivering by complex facing successful commissioning projects continent. Within studies estimate could 315 620 GW continent 2030.4Alova Factors hindering this come form limited transmission distribution infrastructure region, stability, corruption, financing, other factors. recent paper, al.4Alova attempt overcome pitfalls using database 5,000 commissioned Africa unveil which commissioning, important success (i.e., installed capacity, fuel type, grid connection, ownership, finance institutions) at level, meaning paying special attention individual country-level challenges (e.g., government effectiveness, debt). This further solidifies need sub-continent sub-national analysis see are countries disentangles why is. started looking highlighting wide variation North, West, East, Central, Southern Africa. At country variables showed probability included stability country, level democracy score, share agriculture GDP, population. By regional factors, help different areas invest enough utility-scale generate activity providing more intra-country back-up generation. notable from higher off-grid than on-grid plants. It noted workshop held ministers pointed sense urgency when residents adopt residential solar systems, only those same systems abandoned once centralized households neighborhood.3Baker suggests possible reason decentralized smaller result desire among residents. Should numerous technologies retain homes grid, utilities would continue experience utility death spiral,5Castaneda M. Franco C.J. Dyner I. Evaluating effect technology transformation industry.Renew. 80: 341-351Crossref (34) low revenue returns accruing profits needed sustain growth. Expanding country’s network does not without its challenges. 2030 mix, wind predicted account less 10% total With predictions 193–300 fossil even renewable scenarios,4Alova fact generators sign purchase agreements companies 10 years, creates possibility binding themselves carbon lock-in).6Vazquez Hallack role regulatory learning transition: case PV Brazil.Energy Policy. 2018; 114: 465-481Crossref (13) lock-in unprecedented, seen growth China following rise coal facilities. From 2010 2015, expanded 224 approved 200 new end 2015.7Ren Branstetter L.G. Kovak B.K. Erian Armanios Yuan J. Why Has Overinvested Coal Power?.Energy https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.42.2.mrenCrossref (4) time, rapidly expanding investments. Even investments, overinvestment led levels curtailment (17% 20% 2016).7Ren do discuss whether or focus fuels good bad short-term socio-economic perspective, area research. Specifically, room discussion pathways available best countries.8Afful-Dadzie Mallett challenge Global South: Ghana.Renew. 2020; 126: 109830Crossref (9) There reasons fuel-heavy might option, lock emissions but also potentially expensive citizens. As renewables storage falling, cheaper, easily deployable option long term, upfront variability present adoption industrial endeavors.8Afful-Dadzie While I argue full fleet any means environment costs, cannot deny value baseload may aid developing manufacturing sector reducing many struggles we droughts increases hydro facilities under performing, look natural gas nuclear support productive uses manufacturing). valuable understanding few pitfalls. First, it go beyond initial consider whole. Their binary benefits having connection so considered model, difficult know what combination plant’s success. If line connect consumers, require financial connecting technologies. However, backbone has built, subsequent lower barriers entry market, stage project’s Second, machine black box miss play plans pinpoint specific Political opposition can key driving incentives shaping lack necessary commissioning. For example, had alone guarantee success.9Afful-Dadzie Abbey N.A. Owusu B.A. Awudu Renewable target setting countries: Modeling, policy, analysis.Energy Dev. 59: 83-96Crossref Thus, hard replicate Lastly, model determines contribute plant, no mention long-term overall demand country. Kenyan study found rural consumed during first decade urban customers,10Fobi S. Deshpande V. Ondiek Modi Taneja longitudinal consumption Kenya.Energy 123: 569-578Crossref (24) hint cited near population density greater recouping investments through profits. series interpreting interactions shine light transparency sharing. Rigorous assessments hinge accurate high-resolution data. information previous generation, make targeted designs plant-level national moving forward integrate